Monte Carlo módszer a szállítmányozás modellezésben
Although Monte Carlo (MC) method is a highly effective tool for evaluating scenarios where the value of certain variables could not be described precisely, transportation modelling still lacks its proper adoption. This paper explores the application of the MC method by demonstrating a transportation network model with proposed random variable structure covering uncertainties of trip generation. Evaluating repeated assignments show increasing detail of traffic flow values per link and a variety of distribution functions. The implementation adds meaningful context – expected value, deviation, distribution shape – to the usual output of traffic assignment at the cost of increased computational time.
Keywords: Monte Carlo method, Transportation modelling
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